真实世界是汇流，脑子里是一条河
左边五条线都真实地指向同一个结果。但在叙事里，人只会保留最顺手的那一条，把其余的调成静音。
推理链断在第二格
第一格是站得住的观察，第二格是没有任何论证的跳跃。谬误永远发生在那个没人检查的接缝上。
原文里的四个现场
小明考试差
「一定是因为天天玩游戏机」。但挤掉读书时间的因素还有很多：一时大意、试题太难、家里出了大事。玩游戏机既不是唯一原因，也未必是主因。
夏商周灭亡
「夏亡以妹喜，殷亡以妲己，周亡以褒姒」。三位美女未必是三个朝代灭亡的主因，甚至可能根本不是原因。原文引的是《吴越春秋》里那句「贤士国之宝，美女国之咎」。
校园枪击案之后
社论争论凶手父母、媒体暴力、学业压力还是枪支可得性哪一个"才是原因"——其实这些都可能是必要的一环。只挑一个，往往是为了让问责变得可操作。
国家为什么发达
把发达归因于"广纳制度"，把东亚经济奇迹归因于美援。工作伦理、地理条件这些常被提到的因素，同样应当进入视野。
别和这几个混在一起
原文"参见"里列了几个容易混淆的邻居。分清它们，判断的时候才不会打偏。
| 概念 | 和单一因果谬误的区别 |
|---|---|
| 多重充分原因 Overdetermination | 多个原因各自单独都足以导致同一结果。这是世界的客观状态，不是推理错误。 |
| 近因与远因 Proximate / Ultimate causation | 讨论的是因果链条的远近层级，不涉及"是否只有一个原因"。 |
| 虚假关系 Spurious relationship | 两件事看起来相关，其实由第三个变量造成。错在"有没有因果"，不在"有几个"。 |
| 草率结论 Jumping to conclusions | 证据不足就下判断。单一因果谬误即便证据充分也可能犯。 |
| 本质主义 Essentialism | 认为事物有决定其属性的内在本质，并常被误当成原因。 |
| 假两难 False dilemma | 单一因果谬误是它的一种具体形态：忽略了"并存"的可能性。 |
为什么人偏爱单一归因
这一段不在原文里，是读的时候顺手补的理解。
故事需要主角
多因并存的解释没法讲成故事。叙事天然偏爱一个可指认的"它"，于是原因被拟人化、被简化。
问责需要对象
要采取行动、要有人负责，就得先锁定一个可下手的目标。简化在这里是功能，不是bug。
认知要省力
记住五个交互因素比记住一个累得多。省力的解释传播得快，也死得快。
Fallacy of the single cause — Wikipedia 原文
Fallacy of the single cause
The fallacy of the single cause, also known as complex cause, causal oversimplification, causal reductionism, root cause fallacy, and reduction fallacy, is an informal fallacy of questionable cause that occurs when it is assumed that there is a single, simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly sufficient causes. Fallacy of the single cause can be logically reduced to: "X caused Y; therefore, X was the only cause of Y" (although A,B,C...etc. also contributed to Y.) Causal oversimplification is a specific kind of false dilemma where conjoint possibilities are ignored. In other words, the possible causes are assumed to be "A xor B xor C" when "A and B and C" or "A and B and not C" (etc.) are not taken into consideration; i.e. the "or" is not exclusive.
展开原文附录（参考文献 / 延伸阅读 / 参见）
See also
List of cognitive biases
List of fallacies
Formal fallacy, also known as non sequitur (logic) – Faulty deductive reasoning due to a logical flaw
Affirming a disjunct – Formal fallacy
Fallacy of composition – Fallacy of inferring on the whole from a part
Proximate and ultimate causation – Event that is closest to, or immediately responsible for causing, some observed result
Spurious relationship – Apparent, but false, correlation between causally-independent variables
Overdetermination – When a single effect has multiple sufficient causes
Jumping to conclusions – Psychological term
Essentialism – View that entities have identifying attributes, which can be confused for causes